The convergence of polyester and cotton prices may lead to increased demand for cotton
Core reminder: Since the international cotton price soared in 2010/11, many spinning companies have reduced the proportion of cotton used in yarn production and switched to more polyester
Since the international cotton price soared in 2010/11, many spinning companies have reduced the proportion of cotton used in yarn production and turned to more polyester. At the beginning of 2013, the price gap between cotton and polyester has widened. In 2013, the price of polyester basically stabilized at 74-76 cents / lb, until it fell to 65 cents / lb in April this year, while the cotton price rose sharply to 99 cents / lb in the same period.
But since June, the situation has changed. The cotton price index (Cotlook A index) has dropped to 80 cents / lb, while the price of polyester has rebounded to 73 cents / lb. In addition, in the last few weeks of 2013/14, Chinese cotton prices fell from 141 cents / lb to around 126 cents / lb. With the integration of cotton prices and polyester prices, world cotton consumption in 2014/15 is expected to increase by 5% to 24.5 million tons. In the same period, cotton consumption in Asia is expected to increase by a large margin. China is expected to grow by 5% to 7.9 million tons; India ’s cotton consumption will grow by 6% to 5.4 million tons. Ten thousand t.
World cotton production in 2014/15 is expected to fall from 26.1 million tons in 2013/14 to 25.5 million tons.
Although India is affected by the monsoon, the affected area is wider and the output of some regions is more affected, but the output of India in 2014/15 is expected to exceed 6 million tons. On the other hand, the average output of China is more than three times that of India, and output is expected to reach about 6.2 million tons.
The United States has plenty of rain this season, and its output is expected to grow to nearly 3.5 million tons.
Cotton trade volume in 2014/15 is expected to fall to 7.9 million tons, mainly due to China ’s total imports fell to 2.2 million tons, a decrease of 26%. India ’s exports may fall to 800,000 tons, less than half of the same period in 2013/14. In the same period, US exports are expected to increase by 9% to 2.5 million tons.
As of 2013/14, the Chinese government will sell 2.3 million tons of cotton, which accounts for 37% of the total cotton purchases of 6.3 million tons in the quarter. Since the reserves collected for more than two consecutive years exceeded the sales volume, the government ’s inventory increased again. It is estimated that there are 11.4 million tons; China ’s total reserves reached about 11.9 million tons. Except for China, the world's total cotton reserves will increase by 6% to 8.6 million tons; this is the largest total world cotton reserves outside China since 2007/08. When this reserves reaches 8.8 million tons, it will Heavy pressure on cotton prices in 2014/15.